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Report on Fall 2010 Freshman and Transfer Intent to Register Outcomes

Note: The Statement of Intent to Register (SIR) is an interim step in the overall application, admission and enrollment cycle. An admitted student submits an SIR following admission to signal his or her intent to accept the admission offer and enroll at a UC campus. Final enrollment figures for the fall term are typically available in January of the following year.

Fall 2010 marks the second year of the university’s efforts to bring enrollment in line with funding by gradually reducing the number of new freshmen.  At the same time the university sought to maintain its commitment to student transfer through a modest increase in enrollment of new transfers from California Community Colleges. Despite the university’s efforts to more effectively manage new student enrollments through the newly implemented waitlist process, preliminary evidence suggests that many campuses are experiencing unexpectedly high yield rates, and some could exceed enrollment targets.

At this time, it is too early to know whether the university will reach its freshman target of just under 33,000 students.  Although some students who submit SIRs will not enroll for the fall term, it is very likely that the university will exceed its 2010-11 enrollment target of 13,915 new California resident CCC transfers.

Freshmen SIR Outcomes

Tables 1 through 5 show the SIR outcomes for students admitted as freshmen.

For the fall 2010 term, 34,116 California-resident students have indicated their intent to enroll at the University of California. This is only a slight decline from last year (34,296), and is the result of unexpectedly high yield on several campuses. 

For example, while UC Riverside admitted roughly 6,000 fewer applicants this year, the campus saw its SIR numbers increase.  The proportion of admitted applicants to UCR who accepted their offer jumped from 24.2 percent last year to 28.2 percent this year – the third highest in the system.  Like many other campuses, Riverside created a waitlist in case yield was unexpectedly low.  Instead, yield was so high that only two campuses – Davis and Santa Barbara – actually admitted any students from their waitlists. 

The university continues to make positive strides in enrolling a freshman class that is broadly representative of California's diverse population. This year, African American, American Indian, Chicano/Latino students are projected to make up 27 percent of the entering freshman class (compared to 24.9 percent for fall 2009).

Table 1 presents the complete picture of fall 2010 California and domestic freshman admissions and anticipated enrollments. It includes data on applicants admitted in March 2010 for the fall 2010 term, as well as data on alternate admissions offers to fall 2010 applicants, including referral, waitlist and winter/spring term offers. Offers to international students have been excluded from this table.

Table 2 provides three-year comparative information on projected enrollments by residency and ethnicity. For the fall 2010 term, 3,035 non-resident students have indicated their intention to enroll at a UC campus this fall, an 850-student increase over fall 2009.  These students represent just over 8 percent of the entering freshman class (37,151).

Table 3 displays the distribution of fall-term intended registrants by campus and ethnicity for California and domestic admits. Despite this exceptionally competitive year for university admission, campuses were able, for the most part, to sustain or increase the proportion of African American, American Indian, and Latino students in their projected freshman classes. The biggest gains were among Chicano/Latino enrollees, with six campuses showing impressive gains at the freshman level.  Nearly all campuses also experienced gains in the proportion of SIRs from African American students although the actual numerical growth is small. Nevertheless, these outcomes reflect progress in achieving the university’s goal of enrolling a freshman class that is more broadly reflective of the diversity of California.

Table 4 displays the yield rate (intent to enroll/admits) for California and domestic freshmen admitted during the fall admissions cycle. Although the systemwide yield rate dropped slightly, as anticipated when fewer applicants are admitted to the campus of their choice, six campuses experienced increases in yield rates, including Riverside (+7.5 percent), Irvine (+1.4 percent), Merced (+1.3 percent), and Davis, San Diego, Santa Cruz and San Diego with increases of 0.8, 0.6 and 0.4 respectively. 

Table 5 displays the yield rate (intent to enroll/admits) for all freshmen admitted during the fall admission cycle, including international students.  Consistent with earlier years, the yield rate for international students on all campuses – except Berkeley – is lower than the yield for domestic students.  Several campuses did experience notable numerical gains in international students who plan to enroll led by Los Angeles (+207), Berkeley (+150), San Diego (+114) and Irvine (+56).

Community College Transfer Outcomes

Table 6 displays the SIR outcomes for students admitted as California Community College (CCC) transfer students. It includes data on applicants admitted by April 30, 2010 for the fall 2010 term, as well as referral offers at UC Merced.  Comparable data are available for fall 2009 and fall 2010 only.

For the fall 2010 term, 15,720 California-resident CCC transfer students have indicated their intent to enroll at the University of California, a 14.2 percent increase over the fall 2009 term (13,761). In addition, 1,752 international students transferring from a CCC have indicated their intention to enroll at a UC campus this fall, representing 10 percent of the total entering transfer class (17,472).  
Although the systemwide yield rate dropped from 77.6 percent for fall 2009 to 75.9 percent for the fall 2010 term, a number of campuses experienced impressive increases in their yield rates, including Riverside (+6.9 percent), San Diego (+5.7 percent), Santa Cruz (+4.3 percent) and Davis (+3 percent).

The university continued to make strides in enrolling a transfer class that is broadly representative of California's diverse population. At 24 percent, up from 22.6 percent for the fall 2009 term, African American, American Indian andChicano/Latino students increased as a proportion of the projected entering transfer class. On six campuses, including Berkeley, Davis, Irvine, Riverside, San Diego and Santa Cruz, the proportion of enrolling African American students is greater at the transfer level than the proportion of African American freshman enrollees (also see Table 3).

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